Will Increasing Mortgage Rates Impact Home Prices?

There are some who are calling for a decrease in home prices should mortgage interest rates begin to rise rapidly. Intuitively, this makes sense as the cost of a home is determined by the price of the home, plus the cost of financing that home. If mortgage interest rates increase, fewer people will be able to buy, and logic says prices will fall if demand decreases.

有些人認為如果房貸利率上漲,房價將降低。由直覺觀點來看,這是有道理的,因為房屋的成本是由房屋價格加上貸款共同決定。如果房貸利率增加,更少的人們有能力購屋,以邏輯來判斷,如果需求下降,價格將下降。

However, history shows us that this has not been the case the last four times mortgage interest rates dramatically increased.

然而,歷史告訴我們,這並不是最後四次利率大幅增加後的情況。

Here is a graph showing what actually happened:

以下圖表顯示實際發生的狀況:

Last week, in an article titled “Higher Rates Don’t Mean Lower House Prices After All, the Wall Street Journal revealed that a recent study by John Burns Real Estate Consulting Inc. found that:

上週,華爾街日報在一篇題為“高利率不代表房價將下降”的文章中揭露了約翰伯恩斯房地產諮詢公司最近的一項研究:

“[P]rices weren’t especially sensitive to rising rates, particularly in the presence of other positive economic factors, such as strong job growth, rising wages and improving consumer confidence.”

“對於上漲的利率,房價並未受影響,尤其是存在其他積極的經濟因素,如就業率增長,工資上漲和消費者信心提高的情況下。”

Last week’s jobs report was strong and the Conference Board just reported that the Consumer Confidence Index was back to pre-recession levels.

上週的就業率報告非常強壯,會議委員會剛剛報告消費者信心指數已回到了經濟衰退前的標準。

Bottom Line
結論

We will have to wait and see what happens as we move forward, but a decrease in home prices should rates go up is anything but guaranteed.

我們得等待才能知道未來到底會發生什麼狀況,但是房價的下降絕對是沒有保證的。

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