Why Are Mortgage Interest Rates Increasing?

According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage interest rate jumped up to 3.94% last week. Interest rates had been hovering around 3.5% since June, and many are wondering why there has been such a significant increase so quickly.

根據房地美最新的主要房貸市場調查,30年期固定利率上週上升至3.94%。自6月以來,利率一直徘徊在3.5%左右,許多人都想知道為什麼利率一下子高漲的這麼快。

Why did rates go up?
為什麼利率上漲?

Whenever there is a presidential election, there is uncertainty in the markets as to who will win. One way that this is noticeable is through the actions of investors. As we get closer to the first Tuesday of November, many investors pull their funds from the more volatile and less predictive stock market and instead, choose to invest in Treasury Bonds.

每當總統選舉時,市場上有誰會贏的不確定性,通過投資者的行動顯著表現出來。隨著我們更接近11月的第一個星期二,許多投資者把他們的資金從不穩定和不可預測的股票市場拿出,轉而選擇投資國庫券。

When this happens, the interest rate on Treasury Bonds does not have to be as high to entice investors to buy them, so interest rates go down.  Once the elections are over and a President has been elected, investors return to the stock market and other investments, leaving the Treasury to raise rates to make bonds more attractive again.

當這種情況發生時,國庫券的利率不一定要高到誘使投資者購買,因此利率下降。一旦選舉結束,總統選出,投資者也回到股市和其他投資,使得國庫券利率增加,使債券再次更有吸引力。

Simply put, the better the economy, the higher interest rates will go. For a more detailed explanation of the many factors that contribute to whether interest rates go up or down, you can follow this link to Investopedia.

簡單來說,經濟越好,利率越高。有關利率上升或下降的許多因素與更詳細解釋,您可以至Investopedia網站閱讀。

The Good News
好消息

Even though rates are closer to 4% than they have been in nearly 6 months, they are still slightly below where we started 2016, at 3.97%.

即使利率在近六個月第一次接近4%,仍然略低於我們2016年初的3.97%。

The great news is that even at 4%, rates are still significantly lower than they have been over the last 4 decades, as you can see in the chart below.

好消息是,即使在4%,利率仍然顯著低於過去40年來的標準,如下圖所示。

20161122-stm-eng-1024x768

Any increase in interest rate will impact your monthly housing costs when you secure a mortgage to buy your home. A recent Wall Street Journal article points out that, “While still only roughly half the average over the past 45 years, according to Freddie Mac, the quick rise has lenders worried that home loans could become more expensive far sooner than anticipated.”

當您貸款買房屋時,任何增加的利率將影響您的每月住屋費用。最近華爾街日報文章指出,“雖然仍只有過去45年一半的利率,快速上漲的利率使人擔心房屋貸款可能會比預期更早地變得更昂貴。”

Tom Simons, a Senior Economist at Jefferies LLC, touched on another possible outcome for higher rates:

Jefferies LLC的資深經濟學家Tom Simons談到了高漲利率的另一個可能結果:

“First-time buyers look at the monthly total, at what they can afford, so if the mortgage is eaten up by a higher interest expense then there’s less left over for price, for the principal. Buyers will be shopping in a lower price bracket; thus demand could shift a bit.”

“首次購房者會看每月的開銷總額,評估他們是否能負擔得起,如果房貸利率高漲,那麼買家能負擔的房價就越低。買家未來將購買較低房價的房屋,因此房屋需求可能會有所改變。”

Bottom Line
結論

Interest rates are impacted by many factors, and even though they have increased recently, rates would have to reach 9.1% for renting to be cheaper than buying. Rates haven’t been that high since January of 1995, according to Freddie Mac.

利率受到許多因素的影響升高或降低,即使最近增加了,利率也必須達到9.1%才會使得租金比購買更便宜。根據Freddie Mac表示,利率從1995年1月以來從未那麼高過。

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